Weekly Market Analysis

Weekly Market Analysis

May 25, 2025

Bitcoin

Bitcoin recently hit a major milestone with its highest weekly close ever, followed by a new all-time high around $111,000. After a sharp move up from a bullish flag formation—something previously anticipated—the market has now entered a consolidation phase. Current price action suggests Bitcoin is likely to move sideways, hovering around support near $106,000, while gradually reconnecting with its 21-day moving average.

The short-term outlook leans neutral-to-bullish. This period of consolidation could last a week or more, potentially forming a continuation pattern like an ascending triangle or flag. If bullish momentum resumes, the next upside targets are $118,000 and $121,000. On the downside, support sits near $104,000 with risk toward $100K–$102K in the case of a deeper pullback. Overall, the trend remains bullish, with this pause offering breathing room for altcoins to gain momentum.

Total Crypto Market

The total cryptocurrency market cap recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern, echoing Bitcoin’s move, though some gains have since been retraced. Despite the pullback, the structure remains constructive. With Bitcoin holding a significant share of the total cap, its consolidation is setting the stage for altcoins to rotate into strength.

The outlook remains bullish on the macro. The market is nearing a golden cross—a historically strong signal—and the current flag formation hints at another leg up. If momentum continues as expected, the next target for total market cap is around $3.8 trillion. In short: the broader crypto market appears poised for continuation, with altcoins likely to lead the charge in the coming days.

Total 3 Market Chart

Total3, which tracks the market cap of all altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is setting up for a major move. After successfully bouncing off a key trendline and forming a bullish flag, it now signals a period of calm before a likely breakout. The current price action suggests 3–4 more days of sideways consolidation, after which a sharp altcoin rally could begin.

The technical setup mirrors past explosive moves, with the daily chart holding above the 200-day moving average—a historically bullish sign. If the breakout materializes, the next major target is around $1.33 trillion in market cap. The message here is clear: the foundation for altseason is being laid, and the window to position before the next big move may be closing fast.

BTC.D Chart

Bitcoin dominance recently surged following a hidden bullish divergence, reaffirming Bitcoin's leadership in the crypto market. This dominance spike coincided with Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs, showing capital rotation back into BTC. Currently, BTC.D appears to be consolidating, with no immediate signs of a sharp move either way.

The broader takeaway: Bitcoin is still in control, and while altcoins will see growth, the dominance chart suggests a gradual rotation rather than a full-blown altseason. Near-term, expect Bitcoin to maintain its grip with some back-and-forth movement, allowing altcoins to gain selectively. The market remains in a balance phase, with BTC leading and altcoins following—not flipping the script just yet.

USD.T Chart

Tether dominance is in a clear downtrend, breaking below key support levels, signaling that capital is flowing out of stablecoins and back into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. While there’s a hint of bullish divergence, it's weak without strong resistance breaks. Unless it regains levels above 4.5%, USDT.D continues to indicate risk-on behavior and a bullish backdrop for crypto.

DXY Chart

The DXY is breaking down from a bear flag and remains under its key long-term moving averages, signaling continued weakness. With a rising wedge breakdown and no sign of reversal, the dollar looks poised to fall further, potentially down to 94. This sets a bullish tone for Bitcoin and altcoins, as a weakening dollar historically boosts risk-on markets.

Gold Chart

Gold is showing strength amid DXY weakness, forming a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. While some short-term consolidation is likely, the setup suggests a major breakout could be coming, with a target of $4,000 by early summer. This aligns with broader macro uncertainty and continued dollar weakness.

ETH/BTC Chart

Ethereum is gaining ground against Bitcoin, breaking long-term resistance and forming a bullish flag as it rides above the 200-day moving average. The setup suggests ETHBTC could climb toward 0.03, a sign that altcoin season is gaining strength. A sustained move here would confirm rising confidence in altcoins relative to BTC.

Ethereum Chart

Ethereum is building momentum, consolidating in a bullish flag just below its 200-day moving average. A breakout above this level could trigger a move toward $3,600. With strong technicals forming and the 21-day MA closing in, ETH looks ready for a significant leg up after a few more days of consolidation.

S&P Futures

The S&P futures are consolidating in a bullish flag pattern, with price pulling back to align with key moving averages. A breakout looks likely by next week, targeting a move toward 6902. Market structure remains bullish as liquidity returns and investor appetite for risk increases.

Nasdaq Futures

Nasdaq futures are also flagging after a strong breakout from an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The chart is slightly more bullish than the S&P, with a golden cross approaching and more room to run. Expect continued sideways price action for a few more days, followed by a breakout targeting new highs into early June.